Timothy Ferris has a major article in the June 2012 National
Geographic Magazine about solar storms, with the link (paywall, website url) here. The forecast is for increased storms during
the current sunspot cycle, and has the caption “are we prepared?” Solar flares produce “coronal mass ejections”. The most recent storm was in mid May this
year, but it wimped out, this time
(Richmond Times Dispatch, link here . I saw the NatGeo magazine issue randomly in a barber shop this morning.
It’s not so clear that the current increase in activity is
more dangerous than other recent periods. But Ferris warns that a Carrington-like
event (from 1859) could fry power grids and leave civilization in many parts of
the world without electricity for weeks or months.
Space gear and satellites are shielded, but so far power
grids on Earth are not well protected yet.
Dan Vergano has an article in USA Today, Oct. 27, 2010, “One
EMP burst and the world goes dark”, here. The dangers from solar superstorms and
terror EMP blasts are similar, but have differences. It’s probably possible for utilities to
shield the grid from large coronal mass ejections with large grounding “dampers”
and by stockpiling transformers (which ran short in the DC area after Hurricane
Isabel in 2003). Use of dampers might require deliberate, planned blackouts of 24 hours or more given advance warnings of huge space storms.
The cost is hundreds of
billions, but less than a catastrophe.
Shielding against high altitude blast sounds harder, involving Faraday
apparatus, which the military does now. Geomagnetic storms might cause bigger and more prolonged outages in polar latitudes than closer to the equator.
Utilities have not discussed the problems of CME's and EMP with the public with any candor, as far as I can see online.
In October 2010, NASA wrote about a pilot “Solar Shield”
project, which would temporarily disable power during extreme storms to protect
transformers from GIC, geomagnetically induced current. Deliberate blackouts could become an accepted
Homeland Security procedure, but they’re some way off.
Another report from 2010 from Aurora Generators painted a
scary picture even for 2011 (past now), here.
It's ironic to make this post on a day when meteorologists are making dire predictions or severe thunderstorms and maybe tornadoes? Climate change, maybe?
It's ironic to make this post on a day when meteorologists are making dire predictions or severe thunderstorms and maybe tornadoes? Climate change, maybe?
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