Wednesday, September 07, 2016

Donald Trump is behind by maybe one run in the fifth inning of a road baseball game


The Washington Post has conducted a survey of all 50 states and shows that Clinton has only a slight edge, with a dead heat in Texas.  Dan Balz and Scott Clement have the big story here.   Scott Clement has a supplement showing how each state polled, along with the third party candidates.  The Post reports a sense of pessimism about both candidates.

Clinton is in the situation of a being the home team with a one-run lead and shaky pitching after about four innings.

But CNN has reported Trump as actually ahead in some surveys (like a two-run top of the fifth inning) and Stephen Collison and Maeve Reston for CNN Politics report “How Trump Could Win”.

Vox, on the other hand, says “The Swing State Math” looks bad for Trump.  Ezra Klein also explains that this is an "abnormal" election.

Today, I wrote this on Facebook:

I think that Trump is onto something as to the unprecedented nature of the nation’s asymmetric threats.  I share his disdain for left-wing identity politics and coddling “victims” or “losers” – even though need comes from fundamental inequality. But Trump is indulging in “reverse identity politics”  and the “us v. them” or “take care of your own” stuff.   A well-meaning “conservative” could help Trump write his speeches to take the baiting out and talk about specifics. Then he might win.   An intellect like Peter Thiel could help him say things in a different way.



But people who know Trump, like real estate guru Barbara Corcoran, say he is behaving the same way he always has, and that his tactics as an authoritarian personality could actually win the election.


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