Could an odor identification be used as a rapid test for COVID? Also, rare vaccine complications discussed

 

Virginia Hospital Center in Arlington 

Dr. Mike Hansen in NYC has another video, detailing a case where a doctor died of a cerebral hemorrhage about two weeks after getting the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine.

The doctor had thrombocytopenia, an inability to clot due to loss of platelets, from what sounds like an autoimmune disorder.  I knew someone with AIDS who died of this in 1986.  Incidents like this can be triggered by viruses or certain drugs and are hard to predict.  Susceptibility is probably genetic.

With any vaccine, very rare complications may happen if there are enough doses (in this case, over 10 million so far).

The University of Colorado is suggesting that a loss of smell kit be used as a rapid test for flying or entering events.  A visitor would be required to identify a smell on a smart phone.  The proponents claim that loss of some olfactory function occurs in 80% of infections, and is often the only symptom. Sometimes there is temporary loss or distortion of smell and taste that resolves in a few days, which may mean an aborted infection that the person’s immune system caught in time.  (Such an incident may variolate the person and effectively “vaccinate” them.) But there is still a good question as to how long to quarantine.

More on antibody-dependent enhancement, not a problem for coronavirus vaccines

 

NIH clinical center, Bethesda MD

ZDoggMD discusses antibody-dependent enhancement, and explains why it won’t be a concern with the mRNA vaccines for SARS_CoV2.

Apparently some personalities in the anti-Vax crowd have been trying to cite the problem, which indeed was brought up back in March and April 2020 as a possible problem for vaccines.

He discusses two other viral diseases, which do present an ADE problem with vaccines, and these are dengue and RSV, which present slightly different mechanics where incomplete antibody protect actually attracts the virus back in.

We need to get things right, about the public wearing N95 or surgical masks (and make sure what the public needs is easily available)

 

Me with Respokare

 If you buy an N95-style mask (like from Respokare online) can you reuse it?  3M, one manufacturer, says you shouldn’t, but with home use you make do.

Generally, the videos recommend heating to 185 F in a conventional oven (they don’t want an obvious lone-of-sight heat source, which would seem to require a gas oven, when many people have electric coils).

They also recommend some supplementary cleaning.

But another way, according to a second video, is simply to rotate them every seven days and let any virus die off.  

Dr. Mike Hansen, a pulmonologist in NYC, had recommended Respokare for ordinary use in a video last summer. He also recommends eye shields.  

It obviously matters if you need to wear the mask all day at work, or have other people in your household. If you are single and work from home, it’s probably much easier because you don’t have to wear the mask for long periods (outside of shopping).  In practice, people who live alone seem to have a tremendous advantage in avoiding infection or having much milder illness. 

The new Biden administration should make sure that the masks that Americans need (for work) along with proper cleaning supplies are manufactured and easily available.

In the picture of me, I really should pull up the lower strap (but one time when I did this it broke.) 

Some recovered COVID patients have "super-antibodies" which might be therapeutic; severity of winter outbreak (with new strains) seems to strengthen case for harsh lockdowns as vaccine rollout is slow at first

stay at home?

 There are two recent stories showing that a minority of recovered patients have strong neutralizing antibody levels for very long times. Some seem to have special super-antibodies which might be called upon for convalescent plasma or might be cloned for monticlonal antibodies, Lauren Gray story.

 Here is Lauren Gray in Best Life.     

Knowridge has a similar story today.

 There are still conflicting stories on the value of lockdowns.  FEE, a libertarian site, argued against them in November 2020, but the worst of the peaks had not occurred yet. 

 However today Bloomberg writes, “from Bubonic Plague to 2021, Why Lockdowns Look Set to Stay.  

The article describes China’s success with the practice.  Western countries (outside of New Zealand and Victoria in Australia) found it difficult to maintain such absolute control but have been forced to it.

The problem is that lockdowns really are strict and long enough, but somebody has to pay for the enormous economic consequences.  In anycase, once a society has been undermined by an exponentially staged pathogen, it is impossible to control without destroying many individual lives.  They work better in socialist, authoritarian societies.

Vox warns consumers about routine grocery shopping given the new variants, peak in cases, and slow vaccine deployment

 

Hudson River

Karlyn Borysenko alerted us on Twitter to the expectation of “worse lockdowns in 2021” (although Cuomo is already thinking about rapid tests for reopening) and refers to a Vox tweet that if people continue as they are, given greater contagion of the UK and other variants, “The US is screwed.”

The Vox article is by Julia Belluz and has the alarming and “authoritarian” title “Still going to the grocery store? With new virus variants spreading, it’s probably time to stop” with the subtitle “Health experts say you should avoid optional trips whenever you can. You probably need a better mask, too.”

It is true that we should have better masks, and they should be mass-manufactured and delivered periodically.  If that is the nature of the emergency.  If Biden wants a 100-day mask wearing mandate (on federal property and interstate travel), he should say something about quality of masks and the supply.

I am finding grocery delivery to my highrise door and Doordash for restaurant meals quite workable.  I expect to use it during the worst of the surge until I can get vaccinated.

But large grocery and retail stores should have first-rate air filtration systems and announce to the public what systems the use.  They need to be able to capture aerosolized particles.  Best Life has an important article on Hepa filters from Smart News. 

I am 77 and it is not possible to avoid all risk, so at some level I have to be fit enough to survive.  That sounds like a right-wing statement, but so be it.  I sold an inherited single-family home in 2017, and moved into a highrise condos.  Yes, repeated elevator rides (15 seconds) and multiple passengers might present a risk (even with KN95 masks, which I use), or they might provide enough tiny exposure to gradually immunize me even before the vaccine.  There are people around who are careless and don’t cover their noses with masks.

I have a problem with the idea that someone else should take the risk for me and shop for me.  After all, they have more years ahead than I and long term disability from COVID is an increasing danger for younger people.  I have to own my own risk (no kids or relatives).

And it is not possible to segregate seniors, because that would put them in congregate housing with its own risks, as we well know.

One thing that would help would be to vaccinate workers who go into homes to repair things, before vaccinating seniors.

Studies of grocery store and retail workers have shown that many have tested positive at one time with no symptoms, and some have antibodies with no positive antigen or PCR tests.  The experience of grocery store workers is that gradual variolation probably does happen, as the virus is no longer novel.  With healthy people their cellular immune systems should detect variants if they have had past exposure to the original viruses. But as a nation, our health is not too good.

Did we just live through an existential threat of overthrow of the government with a Fascist dictatorship?

 

Botanical garden, 2014

First, let’s share a Nieman article from Harvard, “The Extremist Mob at the U.S. Capitol was America", too.  tribalism, seems to be everywhere, on “both sides”.  They all feel looked down on as “proles” by the liberal “elites”.

Emma Brown, et al, have a story on how close the “protesters” got to VP Pence.   The media suggests that one or more (Republican) members of Congress could have been in on the attack, as maybe some members of military and police.  Consider the reports about special tours in the Capitol the day before.  These claims are not yet proven.  But they leave us wondering  Pete Williams and Adam Edelman have a similar account for NBCNews.  Matthew Brown of USA Today provides some details on the "shaman" and says the feds have "walked back" their most alarming theories. 

My own feeling is that the biggest concern could be inside corruption, including that coming from President Trump himself.

Could concern over variants lead Biden to try a strict "national lockdown" after all? Cuomo wants to use rapid tests to help NYC reopen more quickly

 

Ohio, Fredericktown, Jan 2018

Media outlets are projecting increasing concern this morning about an “escape mutation” E484K, in the South African coronavirus variation.  Elizabeth Cohen has a typical story on CNN 

Scientists fear that it may escape some of the monoclonal antibody or plasma treatments. It is not as likely to escape all the varied antibodies generated by an mRNA vaccine, and in time these vaccines can be modified to catch them.  But the South African variant poses more questions than does the UK one.

MSN also had a story with Fauci’s remarks, by Herb Scribner.

There are two new variants in the US (maybe in Ohio).

One of the biggest concerns I would have is that the appearance of mutations strengthens the arguments for much more draconian lockdowns, to forestall future evasive mutations, such as what we are seeing in the UK.

There is some controversy in the press as to whether Biden would press for a nationwide stick lockdown, most likely about six weeks, as Osterholm was quoted as recommending and then denied. Biden has promised he would “follow the science” but that would imply that the mutations add to the arguments of “lockdown ideology”.  There are also legal questions as to whether in our federal system he does have to go through governors.  In the UK, the severity and length of the lockdowns was suddenly announced right before Christmas, over fears of the UK mutation (it’s really unclear from reports how contagious or severe it is).

There could also be a question as to whether national lockdowns would enable police to handle security threats similar to the Capitol riot, which would have spread more cases.

Branko Marcetic has a long article in the Dec. 10, 2020 Jacobian (a socialist magazine) critical of Biden’s ambivalence, and offering a lot of evidence for the success of strict lockdowns.  But “rapid tests” if done right could reduce the need for them, if combined with automated contact tracing. 

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has very recently indicated that he wants to use rapid test technology and centers to help New York City businesses reopen sooner (NBCNewYork) .  Tweets by Michael Mina have explained how rapid testing strategy should work in a public health manner against variants. 

Could Trump effectively declare Martial Law as part of his trantrums?

 

pillory

One of the purposes of my blogs is to cover issues that could appear suddenly and have unexpected impacts on readers’ lives, even if the scenarios are speculative or hypothetical.

Aaron Blake, in the Washington Post,  discusses what damage more Donald Trump could do in the seven days of office. 

Judging from observation, security preparations for the inauguration appear quite thorough in Washington DC.  There are various reports from states (such as Virginia, where Richmond must host Lobby Day on January 18) discussing fortification.   There was a minor armed protest in Austin, Texas yesterday involving the Castle doctrine that remained peaceful.  It’s common sense that swing states might get the most attention.

Pence has said he will not use the 25^th, and the impeachment proceedings going on now are very unlikely to result in a Senate conviction before January 20.

One idea that keeps popping up in Martial Law.  Could the president put the entire nation under Martial Law out of emotional spite?

Gillian Brockell has an article in the Post Dec. 22 on the topic.  Yes, you need to look at the history.

Martial law was most recently declared by a governor in Cambridge Maryland (on the Eastern shore) in 1963.  But it has been used by governors numerous times in the distant past, even for such matters as labor disputes.

Criminal Defense Lawyer has a guide as to what happens.  In theory, the military takes over civilian courts in prosecuting civilians.  In practice, there is no way to do this without the approval of Congress, which would not happen.

Legal scholars say that the Constitution does not give a president direct authority to declare and enforce martial law, and that this is not the same thing as the Insurrection Act (an ironic observation given January 6).

It still appears possible that Trump could shut down Internet services, to me at least, based on an Atlantic article I reviewed on the Books blog in January 2019.

 Update:  Jan 16

Washington Post intelligence on Trump's meeting with Mark Lindell, the "MyPillow guy", and a proposal for martial law to stay in power, which CNN is laughing at now.   It isn't funny. 

HuffPost presents most alarming security threat account of all for inauguration week

 

Mall, 2007

There are numerous stories in the media today about the serious security challenges in the next 10 days or so, going through the Inauguration.  I won’t add too much speculation, but give the references, from reputable sources.

The most widely circulated story on Monday evening concerned intelligence on plans for protests (or worse) near all 50 state capitols, particularly starting Sunday January 17. The AP reports (Colleen Long et al) here.    Richmond, Virginia will have Lobby Day on MLK day on Monday January 18.  Last year’s event, January 20, was a display for Second Amendment Rights and I went and filmed.  Despite reports of people having fear, the day was peaceful.  Those sound like the “good old days” before we realized the pandemic would stalk us.

The reports also contained concerns over Washington DC, especially Capitol Hill and the security for the inauguration itself.  The New York Times has a detailed story by Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Helene Cooper.  There are some pretty horrible worst case scenarios involving drones or illegal aircraft or multiple snipers.  But it is also true that normally before inaugurations there are very strict protocols in place to detect these tactical threats.   ‘Bullet-proof barricades or enclosures would sound to be in order.

It is certainly wise for people to stay away from DC and watch the ceremonies from home.  But independent journalists will have choices to make.

The most frightening story appears on Huffpost, by Matt Fuller, “House Democrats briefed on three terrifying plans to overthrow government”.  Whether a domestic ground force could really pull off option three sounds very speculative. The chatter using the verb "storm" the capitals, like the notorious website (Daily Stormer) axed after Charlottesville. 

Nevertheless, the inability of the Capitol Police to be prepared for Wednesday’s attack (when the Capitol is normally a fortress) sounds like corruption from within, maybe even also in some of the armed forces. By this president.

Medium article plays devil's advocate with the idea that spike proteins in a vaccine by themselves are harmless

 

There were a few potentially important articles on Medium this morning about research on the SARS_CoV2 spike protein and the idea that even outside of the virus entering cells it might be harmful.

There is a chain of articles by Shin Jie Yong on the topic, leading off with “Spike proteins used in Covid-19 vaccines: are they safe?"  He refers to a study in Nature Neuroscience showing that the S1 protein could cross the blood-brain barrier in mice.   He explains that the spike proteins have two components, S1 (which binds to the ACE2 receptor) and S2, which performs the fusion initiation cell infection.

He goes on to make a lot of comments as to what can be inferred, which is probably not a lot. 

He discusses the spike protein in the brain and in blood vessels.  It is conceivable that without “infection” it is still a kind of toxin (maybe tetanus is a comparison, because the shots are called “antitoxin”). 

Later in the sequence there is an article about a preprint concerning SARS_CoV2 and the human genome. There is talk of chimera-like activity (mixing of human and viral gene)

There is also some talk of effects in cells that have been affected by previous HIV-1 infection (these have been mentioned before but without much followup).  Other sources have said that SARS_CoV2 can enter some T-cells but don’t reproduce inside them (as they do inside HIV) and don’t have reverse transcriptase.

These biological capabilities, however, suggest that effective drugs to intervene that are similar to protease inhibitors for HIV could be developed (the “gay medicine” idea).

He goes on to suggest there could be implications for supposed “reinfections” and that the operation of cellular immunity to stop SARS_CoV2 is indeed very complicated and two-faced.  Nevertheless, so far, many adults have very little trouble recovering completely from the virus, with few symptoms, despite the many long haulers.

There have been many speculative uncertainties about the progress of vaccines and treatments, such as concerns in the past about ADE, or antibody-dependent enhancement.  But many of these have not persisted in medical news.

Certainly the data on phase-3 trials on all the major vaccines (not just the mRNA’s) sound encouraging so far, and recipients don’t seem to have any effects.  Yet reports like these makes one wonder if there could be effects years later. 

It would be important to look at the recent mutations (in UK, SA, mink in Denmark, etc) with regard to these issues.

Our returning to acceptable normal life activity (with the freedoms we have become used to) depend on effective vaccines and early-intervention treatments.  We hope these don’t become less optimistic with time.  One can understand the idea of “zero virus” lockdown ideology for future years, demanding so much “communistic” sacrifice from people now.

Wikipedia embed of how mRNA works, click for attribution 

A lawyer discusses 25rh Amendment and impeachment ("catching it a second time") and even self-pardon

 

White House from Washington Monument, 2007

Virtual Legality (Hoeg Law) in Michigan, discusses Article 25, second Impeachment, and self-pardon.  He says this is a diversion from his usual interest in games.

He does go into the subject of sedition, all the way back to the 18^th century.  Woodrow Wilson used it (it could have applied to criticizing the draft).

The 25^th Amendment is not about “policy” he says, or about “political disagreement”.  It is about the president's not being "able" to perform as president.  Is mental illness, psychosis, or dementia a reason.  When the Vice President offers the document saying the president is unable to do his job, the VP temporarily becomes the acting president, etc. 

Impeachment, by contrast, is a "political process". It could lead to permanent disqualification for any future office holding. 

Karlyn Borysenko offers a new perspective on the Capitol riot

 

July 4, 2018?  Or a motel room?? 

Karlyn Borysenko has a very interesting perspective on what happened in the Capitol riots.

She says there were about 50,000 people on the Mall, and about 200 stormed the Capitol.  (It looks like more in the videos).  A few of the rioters were probably Antifa posing as Trump supporters, but most really were Trump supporters who wanted to say “we’ve had enough”, of being called deplorables (by “Crooked” Hillary), or intellectually handicapped or stupid (by college professor David Pakman). 

She says if they had wanted to, they could have caused tremendous carnage but did not.  She says Antifa would have become and could be a bigger threat.

But allowing such an unexpected rout on the Capitol is hardly acceptable. And so are Trump’s incredible claims of fraud despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary from the individual states. And it certainly looks like the rioters wanted to stop an "electoral college certification" from happening at all, but if finished early this AM. It has been called treason by MSM. 

But maybe the electoral count process is porous and needed to be tested.

Invoke the 25th Amendment now!

 

Capitol 4th 2016

Trump should be removed from office immediately.

Mike Pence should consult his cabinet tonight, about a 25th Amendment removal.  I would even stop the certification hearings (where hopefully there will be only one state, Arizona, “challenged”), have the cabinet meeting and vote, and then resume the election certification tomorrow.

The Washington Post expressed this view just now in an editorial. 

Joseph Choi has a discussion in The Hill

It appears that you need a 2/3 vote in each house.

Trump appears to have dementia.  His mental capabilities have deteriorated markedly since he “recovered” from coronavirus in early October. 

The US faces enhanced (think the severe storm scale) risk of a major cyber attack (beyond the one on government agencies) or infrastructure attacks on the power grids at any time as long as Trump is in office.

To say “you’re fired” almost misses the point.  Trump is medically ill.

Washington Post details what WILL happen January 6

Capitol 4th July 2018

This probably doesn’t need a lot of comment from me, but Amber Phillips of the Washington Post has outlined what will happen at the joint session of Congress starting Wednesday, January 6.

Note that the House will deny every objection because the Democrats control the House 222-211.

The Senate right now is 50-48 GOP (it’s unclear what happens tomorrow from the election), and as of now, 12-13 GOP senators want to protest.

The 1887 law requires both houses of Congress to object, so that can’t happen. ‘

Even if they did, the states’ governors are “on call” (almost like in a computer room of the past) to ratify the fact that they had certified the electors.

There seems to be no serious talk of the idea of postponing some votes for a “10 day audit” which Cruz proposals.  The law would not allow that.

Since there may be several states that cause objections (like Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania), the entire process could well take 12-14 hours and last until early AM Thursday, long past Metro closing time! (and bedtimes). 

A three-judge panel in the 5^th Circuit threw out Gohmert’s appeal on standing.  An en banc session or SCOTUS appeal tonight would be possible, but would have to get done before 1 PM game time tomorrow.

Some people have suggested that Pence could step away and allow the president pro tempore of the Senate Chuck Grassley (R-IA) to perform the MC duties, and right now that is considered improbable (Business Insider). 

Jordain Corney reports in The Hill that resistance to objection is growing among the rest of the GOP Senators. 

Mina calls out CDC on interpretation of Rapid Tests for coronavirus

Atlanta airport 2014

The CDC has created some controversy with an MWWR report on antigen-based testing for SARS_CoV2 for both symptomatic and asymptomatic persons, as of January 1, 2021.  

CDC is saying that negative antigen tests for asymptomatic need to be followed by PCR tests, which would defeat the idea of Rapid Tests. .

Michael Mina points out a contradiction in the report.  The antigen test is based on infectiousness.  An extra PCR test would probably show non-infectious waste RNA.

Ted Cruz et al proposes a special 10-day commission to review swing states before Congress accepts the electors

 

OK countryside 2018

Senator James Lankford (R-OK) appeared on Judge Jeanine tonight (Saturday) and reported he had signed on to a proposal from TedCruz that Congress should create a commission for 10 days to examine claims of irregularities and allow swing states to be voted for a different slate (Trump) if irregularities are documented.

It’s not clear that this would make any difference Jan. 6 unless a majority of each house sustained an objection.

Fox News says that if a commission is formed, the vote is delayed and objections don't happen (broadcast).  That doesn't sound likely right now, but stay tuned. 

Gohmert is appealing the dismissal of the Pence case to the Fifth Circuit.

Update: Jan 3

Now, this.  I'm speechless.  Trump calls Georgia Secretary of State to "find votes" (W Post).  The Trump campaign is getting sued for defamation by Dominion Voting Systems (Reuters). 

Virus mutations may well be compounding the acceleration of case counts, even hospitalizations, in the US

 

on a plane, 2012

Hugo Martin writes for the Los Angeles Times, “Visibly ill people aren’t being kept off planes”. 

The story gives an example of someone who lied on a health form in Orlando, and died after the plane had to be diverted when passengers tried to give him CPR, at risk to themselves.

Practically the only solution would be uniform rapid tests at airports.

Reuters reports that Roche says that its varied tests for the coronavirus, including rapid tests, won’t be impacted by the mutations.  

But one has the impression that the UK mutation is probably quite widespread in much of the US, being found in the San Diego, in Florida, and California, in young adults with no history of travel.  In Colorado they are represented by National Guard personnel associated with helping a nursing home.

A mutated virus might help explain the super rapid spread in California, on top of travel.  A virus that enters ACE2 receptors more easily might attack younger adults more easily and might increase the risk of more severe illness in a population that generally has very little.  We don’t know if a few of the other disturbing cases of severe illness in young adults might have been associated with mutant strains.

The mRNA vaccination strategy should be more flexible in dealing with mutations since it trains the immune system to recognize many different parts of the proteins.  Here are some talking points on Twitter about human behavior pressuring selective mutations from someone playing Devil's Advocate.  If you think about the points here, that might be a reason for New Zealand's (or Umair Haque's) demands to make the public sacrifice to drive the virus to absolute zero. But BGR's Chris Smith suddenly offers us some reassuring news from Dr. Fauci:  immunity to the normal D and G variants protects one against the UK mutation. 

Astrazeneca vaccine approval in US will not occur until at least February

 

Cape Cod, 2015

The Astrazenca vaccine, developed with Oxford University, may be submitted to the US FDA by February, the UK Daily Mail reports.  The US trial is behind the UK’s because of a couple of problems (a spinal chord inflammation and a mistake with dosages).  WJLA says it may not be approved until Spring (late March) in the US/ 

However, having the vaccine could tremendously accelerate the vaccine delivery and bring an end to many new infections, by early spring. 

Trials in the US may be more difficult because it is important to test on enough minority subjects.  People who can get one of the mRNA vaccines now (age 75+ may be available in January) will be reluctant to risk a placebo when they need the protection now.

But Benjamin Mueller et al report in the New York Times shows convincing results in the UK, where the new strain creates an emergency.  In the UK, authorities should learn very quickly how effective the vaccine is against the new more transmissible “B117” strain (and there is a similar one in South Afirca).  The UK strain has been found in Colorado and now California in the US.

Increasing contagion overall becomes likely as B117 mutation is now found in the US; more spread in the workplace?

 

NY 

The first known case of the B117 variant of Sars-CoV2 was detected in Colorado, examining a 29 year old man with apparently mild or moderate symptoms, but in isolation.  He had not traveled, so back contact tracing may find a travel source (USA Today)  

If the mix of virus really is to become more contagious, indoor ventilation, as of workplaces, becomes even more critical (because of aerosols).  But it is very difficult for ordinary businesses outside of medicine   Here is an interesting article in EHS from September.      

We find increasing evidence that “essential workers” have not simply more COVOD disease, but also more asymptomatic infection.  About 20% of retail checkout clerks in the US test have tested positive, and well over 75% reported no clinical illness.  These workers may be becoming “variolated”. It would be interesting to so antibody and T-cell reactivity tests on all these workers and be stunned at the results. 

Luke Money et al describe the blowup in California partly in terms of large populations of low-income workers living in large households (LA Times). 

What really happens on January 6?

 

Capitol 4th 2018

NPR has a pretty straightforward explanation of what happens indoors in the Congress on Wednesday, Jan. 6, when the House and Senate combined read the results of the electoral vote and accept it.

Both House and Senate have to object to a particular slate, and they can have separate wigwams for two hours each challenge, which can draw out the day indeed.

The article says that since Democrats control the House (they may come out to 50-50 in the Senate but Pence is still the tie-break that day) this can’t go anywhere. 

There are states where both would agree, and if there were some way to get swing states to revote with state delegations, in theory the outcome would change.  But I don’t know off hand if the GOP has the majority of representatives (and Senators) in the four biggest swing states.

It will be mild in DC, 52 degrees, on Jan 6, for the protesters, and partly cloudy.

Update:

Dec. 30  Josh Hawley (R-MO) will clog the process with his challenge (CNN).  And, then, there is Hawley's "Walmartgate".  And the Gohmert lawsuit against Pence.