Sunday, July 31, 2011
Friday, July 29, 2011
Bipartisan Policy Center appears to have the most credible day-to-day analysis of August govt payments (in case of no debt ceiling) and intake available; interest payment due Aug. 15
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Do we really KNOW whether gov't can make payments without ceiling lift? MSN piece asks for "sacrifice"; could FDIC deposit insurance be at risk?
While John Boehner's control of his own GOP Party implodes tonight:
CNN Money has this report on the Analysis of the Bipartisan Policy Center, high level link with some day-to-day analysis, link here. The devil is in the details in the PDF link; we'll look at it more soon. The BPC says the Treasury may well have enough cash to get to Aug. 10. Stay tuned.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
There is some talk that if there were fiscal chaos for a while (and some people got "hurt", like in the movie "The Town"), the Congress and President could be forced to accept a Balanced Budget Amendment, which would constrain federal spending forever, no matter who was in power, no matter what massive national emergency (like another 9/11), no matter how much demographics change.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Monday, July 25, 2011
Boehner/TP and Obama/Reid play Dueling Banjos; can Obama turn the tables by raising the debt ceiling on his own?
Update: 4: 30 PM
President Obama addresses the nation tonight at 9 PM EDT on "stalemate over avoiding default and the best approach to cutting deficits," (ABC). Boehner will also speak (pun).
Update: 10 PM, after the speeches.
The Washington Post has an important story by Zachary A. Goldfarb, "US could avoid default a few days longer", new reports say (link). Bloomberg has a similar story where a Wells Fargo analyst John Silva says actual default would not happen until September, link.
Sunday, July 24, 2011
Congress needs a preliminary deal today, before markets open; but the "Chaos Experiment" continues; If no deal today, do investors panic Monday?
CNN video, "the debt crisis is being driven by math" (Price). Yup, I've been a math teacher myself. Learn to work the Algebra I story problems:
Here is White House Chief of Staff on debt ceiling and deficit this morning:
Saturday, July 23, 2011
Conduct of politicians, Boehner's behavior Friday, rattle confidence of investors in future US stability
The Washington Post has a detailed account here, and it looks like the two sides were not as far apart as the hissy-fit makes it look. The administration supposedly added a demand for $400 million more in revenue increases (taxes??), resisted more cuts to Medicaid (small in proportion to the whole problem), and the GOP wanted to put some of ObamaCare at risk.
Judge Judy should show up at the 11 AM meeting and give both sides in the sandbox one of her lectures.
Andrew Sullivan has an alarming piece in his "Daily Dish": "The Cold Civil War", here. He calls The GOP now a faction of anarchists, and writes "Their fiscal anarchism has now led to their threat to destabilize and possibly upend the American and global economy because they refuse to compromise an inch. They control only one part of the government, and yet they hold all of it hostage." And they hold "ordinary people" hostage , too. Welcome to the 1930s.
Friday, July 22, 2011
Tea Party probably not numerous enough to block eventual debt extension deal, but their "anti-Chicken-Little" claims have more credibility than I had thought
Thursday, July 21, 2011
How many members of the House said pledged they would never extend the debt ceiling? I thought it was "only" about 40 or so.
Also, the New York Times (Louise Story and Julie Creswell) and MSNBC have a story about Wall Street's preparations for possible default here. MSNBC is reporting that the US may already have passed a critical point in avoiding a credit rating downgrade.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
It's interesting to me that while Congress chokes on its job, private-business America tries to move along, ignoring the icebergs ahead. On the same day of a major setback in Congress, Facebook announces its Skype deal. "Les Six" announces its schedule for next year: more polytonal versions of Mozart and maybe "bargemusic" and concerts in condos overlooking Central Park. I try to announce the outlines of my DADT movie concept. Hollywood plans life after Harry Potter (maybe another "Inception"). We're back to what the late libertarian Harry Browne said in the 1990s: "government doesn't work."
I'm not sure I follow the logic of a group called "No More Blank Checks", link.
Sunday, July 17, 2011
Look at the August numbers: On paper, you could pay most "critical debts" without debt extension; does Tea Party have a point? But it gets VERY dangerous.
Note also: The Democrats beat the Republicans, 8-2, at Nationals Park Thursday night. I don't know who was the home team.
Saturday, July 16, 2011
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Moody's warns Congress; so does Standard and Poor's (but more gently); Balanced Budget amendment, temper tantrums, and more
Would Rand Paul join in? He probably wants wealthier seniors to give up all their entitlements now.